Demand and supply of dispatchable generation in the power system of the Netherlands, 2030-2050
report
The Netherlands – being part of the EU – aims at a climate-neutral society in 2050. For the Netherlands, this implies a strong further electrification of the energy system by means of power-to-X (P2X) technologies, such as power-to-hydrogen (P2H2) and power-to-heat (P2H), resulting in an expected increase of total electricity demand by a factor 3 to 4 over the period 2020-2050. On the supply side, this rapidly growing demand is, on balance, largely met by domestic power generation from variable renewable energy (VRE), in particular sun PV and (offshore) wind. The variability, however, of sun and wind – including in particular hours and even extended periods in which sun and wind are hardly or not available (‘Dunkelflautes’) –raises the need to optimise additional, dispatchable power generation and other flexibility options – such as storage, trade or demand response – in order to meet electricity demand over all hours of the years in a reliable and affordable way. Against this background, the key objectives or research questions of the current study include: • What is the expected future need (‘demand’) for dispatchable generation in the Netherlands over the years 2030-2050? • What is the expected cost-optimal supply mix of dispatchable (CO2-free) generation technologies in the Netherlands over the period 2030-2050 within an European-wide context (i.e., allowing cross-border electricity trade and compensating any positive CO2 emissions somewhere in the European P2X system by negative CO2 emissions elsewhere.
in the system) to achieve a climate-neutral European P2X system in 2040 and beyond?
in the system) to achieve a climate-neutral European P2X system in 2040 and beyond?
Topics
TNO Identifier
1023586
Publisher
TNO
Collation
121 p.
Place of publication
Petten