Atmospheric, oceanic and climatic response to greenhouse and feedback effect
bookPart
Global warming due to the greenhouse effect should result in a sea-level rise. Estimates for the next 100 years range from 20–140 cm. This range is due to the fact that the input to the models has many uncertainties. An important record about climatic changes is available in the geological past, but the evidence should be refined by geologists and used as an input to the forecast of future climatic changes. Deep sea cores provide proxy evidence of changes in the ocean surface temperatures. The ratio of the oxygen isotopes reflect accumulation and decay of the continental ice caps. These 100,000 years cycles correspond nicely to the calculated solar insolation curves of Milankovitch. Superimposed on global cycles are those of shorter duration which are probably not global. Climatic changes in the Late Glacial are likely to be more sudden and time-restricted than can be derived from the deep sea record. Our present interglacial, the Holocene, is characterized by fluctuations that include a climatic optimum and periods called “little ice ages”. The paleoclimatic record indicates that changes in temperature do not respond in a gradual way but responds in sharp jumps. A second conclusion is that long-term climatic variations over the past 400,000 years and extrapolations for the coming 60,000 years should lead to a beginning of the next ice age. How the predicted greenhouse warming will interact with the natural trend is not known.
TNO Identifier
231346
ISBN
978-94-010-6801-7
Publisher
Kluwer
Source title
Greenhouse effect, sea level and drought
Editor(s)
Paepe, R.
Fairbridge, R.W.
Jelgersma, S
Fairbridge, R.W.
Jelgersma, S
Place of publication
Dordrecht
Pages
75-84
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