A probabilistic model‑based approach to assess and minimize scaling in geothermal plants

Geothermal installations often face operational challenges related to scaling which can lead to loss in production, downtime, and an increase in operational costs. To accu rately assess and minimize the risks associated with scaling, it is crucial to understand the interplay between geothermal brine composition, operating conditions, and pipe materials. The accuracy of scaling predictive models can be impacted by uncertain ties in the brine composition, stemming from sub-optimal sampling of geothermal fluid, inhibitor addition, or measurement imprecision. These uncertainties can be further increased for fluid at extreme conditions especially high salinity and tempera ture. This paper describes a comprehensive method to determine operational control strategies to minimize the scaling considering brine composition uncertainties. The proposed modelling framework to demonstrate the optimization under uncertainty workflow consists of a multiphase flow solver coupled with a geochemistry model and an uncertainty quantification workflow to locally estimate the probability of pre cipitation potential, including its impact on the hydraulic efficiency of the geothermal plant by increasing the roughness and/or decreasing the diameter of the casings and pipelines. For plant operation optimization, a robust control problem is formulated with scenarios which are generated based on uncertainties in brine composition using an exhaustive search method. The modelling and optimization workflow was demon strated in a geothermal case study dealing with barite and celestite scaling in a heat exchanger. The results showed the additional insights in the potential impact of brine composition uncertainties (aleatoric uncertainties) in scaling potential and precipita tion location. Comparing the outcome of optimization problem for the deterministic and fluid composition uncertainties, a change of up to 2.5% in the temperature control settings was observed to achieve the optimal coefficient of performance.