Pilot Methodologie Ontwikkeling Trendextrapolatie: deelstudie bij de Toekomstverkenning Gezond en Veilig Werken [Pilot Methodology Development for Trend Extrapolation: part of the Foresight Study into Occupational Health and Safety]
report
A scientific way of exploring the future is to estimate expected developments based on figures from the past. These estimations are called 'projections'. Projections are often used to provide estimate figures on diseases and the health among the Dutch population in the future. TNO and RIVM wanted to know whether this method could also be used to provide figures on 'occupational health and safety' in the future. This proved to be difficult. To assess this, projections were made for 2040 based on 20 topics relating to psychosocial work factors (PWF) and burnout symptoms. PWF is a collective term for factors that cause work-related stress. Examples of the topics covered included autonomy (working independently), job insecurity and burnout symptoms. The results of the projections differed from what experts considered realistic. This is probably because projections for PWF topics are less straightforward to make than those for diseases and illnesses. This is because there are various uncertain developments that could influence how PWF evolves in the long term, such as economic growth and technological developments. These developments cannot easily be incorporated into the projections. However, they can be incorporated into 'future scenarios', as these allow for different scenarios to be worked out. Consider, for example, a scenario in which the economy is doing very well and technology is taking over many tasks at work, and a scenario in which this is not the case. TNO and RIVM therefore consider it more logical to explore the future of topics related to 'occupational health and safety' in this way.
Topics
TNO Identifier
1015539
Publisher
TNO
Collation
32 p.
Place of publication
Bilthoven ; Leiden