TNO Model Chain Groningen : Update and comparison of 2020 HRA model
report
Production from the Groningen gas field induces earthquakes and ground motion at the earth’s surface. The TNO Model Chain is a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis (PSHRA) tool, specifically developed for the Groningen area to predict personal risk from future induced earthquakes. The tool is based on the NAM Hazard and Risk Assessment (HRA), but implemented independently in the public domain using a different numerical methodology. Barring acceptable numerical differences, the tool is able to reproduce the NAM HRA results exactly (TNO, 2019; 2020a). Since the publication of the in-depth reports describing the comparison between NAM and TNO results (TNO, 2019) and describing the technical implementation of the TNO Model Chain (TNO, 2020a), the individual model components in the NAM tool have been updated. TNO has been asked to also include these updates in the TNO Model Chain. This report aims to: 1) Summarize the model updates and their implications for technical implementation in the TNO Model Chain 2) Compare the results of the new implementations in the TNO Model Chain with the results obtained by NAM in the HRA 2020. The content and scientific merit of the model updates themselves are not discussed in this report. In addition, TNO has had no access to detailed, specific output from NAM, nor has had access to their computations or codes. Hence, the current report is a quick scan to compare TNO and NAM output and the analysis is therefore described in a qualitative sense.
TNO Identifier
882147
Publisher
TNO
Collation
20 p. (incl. bijlagen)