Mapping and analysis of alternative growth paradigms. Towards a taxonomy and storylines of alternative growth paradigms for use in the MultiFutures project
report
This report presents an analysis of the alternative growth debate taking place in the scientific,
public and policy realm. Aim is to provide a taxonomy of paradigms and to develop, based on
this taxonomy, different storylines of alternative societal futures that can be used as inputs for
modelling in subsequent Work Packages of the MultiFutures project.
The research was conducted in four consecutive steps: search, selection, analysis and synthesis.
In the Search phase, different paradigms were explored, starting with a set of 7 paradigms from
previous research. This set was expanded to 41 paradigms based on survey inputs within the
MultiFutures team and an AI search. In the Selection phase, criteria were set on which to select
the paradigms. These resulted in a set of 12 paradigms for further analysis. Based on this
selection, the policy, academic and public debate on alternative growth were mapped, showing a
sharp rise of publications over the years 2012-2023 in particular for Green Growth and Degrowth
as well as a global spread of the debate with a focus in Europe and the United States. In the
Analysis phase, an systemic AI based comparison of the 12 paradigms was conducted, by
extracting and synthesizing key features from leading academic and policy publications. In this
analysis, 15 main features of each paradigm were retrieved and compared.
From this research, a taxonomy of paradigms emerged from which 4 main storylines were
derived, each with a profoundly different normative vision on the meaning of ‘societal welfare’ in
the future and a different preferred route to achieve the desired outcomes: Mission Economy,
Post Growth, Green Growth and Great Mindshift. Further research in the MultiFutures project will
turn these qualitative storylines into quantitative policy scenarios to be used as inputs for
modelling to reveal potential impacts of the different societal futures envisaged in the storylines
public and policy realm. Aim is to provide a taxonomy of paradigms and to develop, based on
this taxonomy, different storylines of alternative societal futures that can be used as inputs for
modelling in subsequent Work Packages of the MultiFutures project.
The research was conducted in four consecutive steps: search, selection, analysis and synthesis.
In the Search phase, different paradigms were explored, starting with a set of 7 paradigms from
previous research. This set was expanded to 41 paradigms based on survey inputs within the
MultiFutures team and an AI search. In the Selection phase, criteria were set on which to select
the paradigms. These resulted in a set of 12 paradigms for further analysis. Based on this
selection, the policy, academic and public debate on alternative growth were mapped, showing a
sharp rise of publications over the years 2012-2023 in particular for Green Growth and Degrowth
as well as a global spread of the debate with a focus in Europe and the United States. In the
Analysis phase, an systemic AI based comparison of the 12 paradigms was conducted, by
extracting and synthesizing key features from leading academic and policy publications. In this
analysis, 15 main features of each paradigm were retrieved and compared.
From this research, a taxonomy of paradigms emerged from which 4 main storylines were
derived, each with a profoundly different normative vision on the meaning of ‘societal welfare’ in
the future and a different preferred route to achieve the desired outcomes: Mission Economy,
Post Growth, Green Growth and Great Mindshift. Further research in the MultiFutures project will
turn these qualitative storylines into quantitative policy scenarios to be used as inputs for
modelling to reveal potential impacts of the different societal futures envisaged in the storylines
Topics
TNO Identifier
1006266
Publisher
TNO
Collation
78 p.