Assessing Future Technologies through a Hybrid Lens

The current geopolitical landscape, marked by the rebirth of geopolitical power struggles, causing instability and arms control challenges, exacerbates the difficulties in regulating the use of emerging technologies. Additionally, traditional arms control mechanisms struggle to keep pace with the rapid advancements in technology, leaving a regulatory gap that can also be exploited as and through hybrid threats.
Furthermore, private technology super enterprises have considerable influence and resources that can shape the trajectory of emerging technologies. Their pursuit of market dominance and profitability may overshadow considerations of potential national and state risks and foster a need for regulation or mitigation of undesired effects and exploitations of technologies. Therefore, monitoring and understanding technological developments are crucial to mitigate the potential misuse of technologies in hybrid threats.
Therefore we have developed a methodology to identify and assess technologies that can be (mis)used as enablers for hybrid threats posed by hybrid actors. Such technologies include AI, robotics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and quantum computing. Advancements in these technologies can enhance spying, disinformation, cyber attacks and autonomous drone attacks to name but a few.
Our methodology provides criteria for both the identification and assessment of so called hybrid threat technologies. The identification part includes an analysis of modi operandi of hybrid actors and the target domains in which effects might be created. The assessment part consists of a likelihood and impact assessment, based on a set of criteria that discriminates hybrid threat technologies from other technologies.