Plastic waste scenarios for the ARRRA region. Current and future quantities and qualities of regionally available plastic waste and biowaste
report
This report is a deliverable of work package 7 of the SYSCHEMIQ project. The goal of the SYSCHEMIQ project is to find circular systemic solutions to achieve a good quality processable feedstock for both mechanical and chemical recycling. The project focuses on the Tri-lateral Rhine-Meuse Euregion (NL, BEL, GER), surrounding the Chemelot Circular Hub, a unique chemicals and materials community as well as
an industrial park, that will take the lead in this transition process. This report provides quantitative projections on the future plastic packaging waste and biowaste streams in the tri-lateral ARRRA region up to 2060 and their spatial distribution via a geographical (GIS) model. Moreover, it provides a set of scenario data on future energy prices, policy assumptions, and plastic waste compositions, to
be used in a model framework. To our knowledge, comprehensive scenarios for the plastic system covering this wide range of aspects from socioeconomic parameters to pricing and policies have not been developed so far. The model framework has the goal to evaluate societal (in our case socio-economic, environmental, and circular) and business performance of collection, sorting, transport and mechanical and
(thermo)chemical recycling of plastic waste and biobased streams to support technological and policy development as well as upscaling and implementation of optimal organized circular plastic business cases and value chains in the ARRRA region.
The plastic sector is influenced by a multitude of external factors such as socioeconomic developments (e.g., GDP, population, energy system). We define those factors as external to our analyzed foreground system (i.e., the plastic sector), as background scenarios. We chose projections of the future energy system from PBL’s IMAGE model as inputs for our background scenarios, based on the shared socioeconomic pathways used in climate modeling. Here we compare a baseline scenario (no climate action) with a scenario reaching the 1.5 degree climate target from the Paris Agreement. For population and GDP projections we used data from OECD and Eurostat.
Based on historic data and their relationship to GDP and population development, we created projections on plastic packaging waste and broke it down to regional level (NUTS23). For biowaste streams, we made use of existing projections. We project that plastic packaging waste generation in the ARRRA region (NL, BE, North Rhine Westphalia) will increase by 37%: i.e., from 1602 kton in 2020 to 2189 kton in 2060.
Moreover, a total of 8236 kton biomass waste and residues were available in the ARRRA region in 2020, increasing by 24% to 10.180 kton in 2060. This data was integrated into a newly developed GIS tool, which visualizes the spatial distribution of the waste streams and allows the exploration of the results over time for different scenarios (see Figure 1). Together, plastic packaging and biowaste streams in the
ARRRA region equal approximately 197 PJ in 2020, which corresponds to almost half of the estimated 402.5 PJ feedstock needs of the Dutch chemical sector.
(Figure 1: The GIS browser tool visualizing waste streams projections)
Based upon three main principles: plastic waste qualities, plastic waste quantities and plastic waste policies, we developed three what-if foreground scenarios. Those foreground scenarios provide assumptions that cover factors that are part of the analyzed foreground system, i.e., the plastic sector, contrary to the background scenarios that cover socioeconomic and other aspects and developments in other
parts and sectors of society (e.g., the energy sector). The main variation within the foreground scenarios concerns the degree of mixed plastics in waste, which is key for the quality of recycling:
1. Baseline scenario: extrapolation of current plastic mix
2. Mixed plastic waste policy scenario: a shift towards more mixed plastics
3. Monoplastic waste policy scenario: a shift towards several monoplastic streams
For each scenario, also preliminary policy measure packages have been presented, which will be further developed in cooperation with SYSCHEMIQ work package 1 on governance.
The background and foreground scenarios to be used as inputs for a first model quick scan are summarized in Table 1.
(Table 1: Selected background and foreground scenarios for the quick scan analysis)
In a next step, this scenario set will be implemented in the SYSCHEMIQ model framework for a quick scan to assess and learn about the models and the plastic system in the ARRRA region, as a basis for further research in the project.
an industrial park, that will take the lead in this transition process. This report provides quantitative projections on the future plastic packaging waste and biowaste streams in the tri-lateral ARRRA region up to 2060 and their spatial distribution via a geographical (GIS) model. Moreover, it provides a set of scenario data on future energy prices, policy assumptions, and plastic waste compositions, to
be used in a model framework. To our knowledge, comprehensive scenarios for the plastic system covering this wide range of aspects from socioeconomic parameters to pricing and policies have not been developed so far. The model framework has the goal to evaluate societal (in our case socio-economic, environmental, and circular) and business performance of collection, sorting, transport and mechanical and
(thermo)chemical recycling of plastic waste and biobased streams to support technological and policy development as well as upscaling and implementation of optimal organized circular plastic business cases and value chains in the ARRRA region.
The plastic sector is influenced by a multitude of external factors such as socioeconomic developments (e.g., GDP, population, energy system). We define those factors as external to our analyzed foreground system (i.e., the plastic sector), as background scenarios. We chose projections of the future energy system from PBL’s IMAGE model as inputs for our background scenarios, based on the shared socioeconomic pathways used in climate modeling. Here we compare a baseline scenario (no climate action) with a scenario reaching the 1.5 degree climate target from the Paris Agreement. For population and GDP projections we used data from OECD and Eurostat.
Based on historic data and their relationship to GDP and population development, we created projections on plastic packaging waste and broke it down to regional level (NUTS23). For biowaste streams, we made use of existing projections. We project that plastic packaging waste generation in the ARRRA region (NL, BE, North Rhine Westphalia) will increase by 37%: i.e., from 1602 kton in 2020 to 2189 kton in 2060.
Moreover, a total of 8236 kton biomass waste and residues were available in the ARRRA region in 2020, increasing by 24% to 10.180 kton in 2060. This data was integrated into a newly developed GIS tool, which visualizes the spatial distribution of the waste streams and allows the exploration of the results over time for different scenarios (see Figure 1). Together, plastic packaging and biowaste streams in the
ARRRA region equal approximately 197 PJ in 2020, which corresponds to almost half of the estimated 402.5 PJ feedstock needs of the Dutch chemical sector.
(Figure 1: The GIS browser tool visualizing waste streams projections)
Based upon three main principles: plastic waste qualities, plastic waste quantities and plastic waste policies, we developed three what-if foreground scenarios. Those foreground scenarios provide assumptions that cover factors that are part of the analyzed foreground system, i.e., the plastic sector, contrary to the background scenarios that cover socioeconomic and other aspects and developments in other
parts and sectors of society (e.g., the energy sector). The main variation within the foreground scenarios concerns the degree of mixed plastics in waste, which is key for the quality of recycling:
1. Baseline scenario: extrapolation of current plastic mix
2. Mixed plastic waste policy scenario: a shift towards more mixed plastics
3. Monoplastic waste policy scenario: a shift towards several monoplastic streams
For each scenario, also preliminary policy measure packages have been presented, which will be further developed in cooperation with SYSCHEMIQ work package 1 on governance.
The background and foreground scenarios to be used as inputs for a first model quick scan are summarized in Table 1.
(Table 1: Selected background and foreground scenarios for the quick scan analysis)
In a next step, this scenario set will be implemented in the SYSCHEMIQ model framework for a quick scan to assess and learn about the models and the plastic system in the ARRRA region, as a basis for further research in the project.
TNO Identifier
988748
Publisher
TNO
Collation
52 p.