Helpen automatiseringskansen om de toekomst van banen te voorspellen? [Do automation probabilities help to predict the future of jobs]
article
Frey and Osborne (2017) developed a method to estimate the automation probability of occupations based on their task composition. In doing so, they predict which occupations will grow or disappear in the long run as a result of technology. The question is what the predictive value of the Frey and Osborne Index (FOI) is. A comparison with another predictive method, the Labouring Capacity Index (LCI) of Pfeiffer and Suphan (2015), provides an answer. The survey data of the Flemish Employability Monitor 2013 are used to calculate the automation probabilities of six occupations based on the two indices. The deviation between the predicted and real evolution in size of those occupations, measured by the Labour Force Survey, gives insight into the predictive value of FOI and LCI. The analyses show that the predictive value of the methods is limited and that the LCI predicts somewhat better. The conclusion is that the future of work is better estimated in other ways than based on the current composition of tasks in professions. In particular, research is needed on the future of organisational forms, as they will determine how regulating tasks are distributed across functions at all levels of organisation.
TNO Identifier
985188
Source
Tijdschrift voor Arbeidsvraagstukken, 39(1), pp. 91-106.
Pages
91-106