Predictieve waarde van drie methoden om de toekomst van banen te schatten op basis van de Werkbaarheidsmonitor: SBO Paradigms 4.0 (deliverable D1.2)
report
Frey & Osborne (2013/17) developed a method to estimate the automation probability of occupations. With this method, they predict which occupations will grow and/or disappear in the long run. The question is how the predictive value of this method compares to two other methods: the Labouring Capacity Index (Pfeiffer & Suphan, 2015) and the MST scores (Kuipers et al., 2020). In order to test the predictive value, a forecasting method was used in which measurement results from the Workability Monitor (WBM) of Flanders from 2004 and later were used to predict the volume of employment in Flanders until 2019. The analyses show that the predictive value of the different methods is limited. In this report we look at why this is the case and how a measurement method based on the Modern Sociotechnical approach can be an alternative to study the development in occupations.
TNO Identifier
957339
ISSN
9789088361265
Publisher
CeSO ; TNO
Collation
141 p.
Place of publication
Leuven ; Leiden