Science and technology for monitoring and investigation of WMD compliance

The integration of novel technologies for monitoring and investigating compliance can enhance the effectiveness of regimes related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This report looks at the potential role of four novel approaches based on recent technological advances – remote sensing tools; open-source satellite data; open-source trade data; and artificial intelligence (AI) – in monitoring and investigating compliance with WMD treaties. The report consists of short essays from leading experts that introduce particular technologies, discuss their applications in WMD regimes, and consider some of the wider economic and political requirements for their adoption.
The growing number of space-based sensors is raising confidence in what open-source satellite systems can observe and record. These systems are being combined with local knowledge and technical expertise through social media platforms, resulting in dramatically improved coverage of the Earth’s surface. These open-source tools can complement and augment existing treaty verification and monitoring capabilities in the nuclear regime.
Remote sensing tools, such as uncrewed vehicles, can assist investigators by enabling the remote collection of data and chemical samples. In turn, this data can provide valuable indicators, which, in combination with other data, can inform assessments of compliance with the chemical weapons regime. In addition, remote sensing tools can provide inspectors with real time two- or three-dimensional images of a site prior to entry or at the point of inspection. This can facilitate on-site investigations.
In the past, trade data has proven valuable in informing assessments of non-compliance with the biological weapons regime. Today, it is possible to analyse trade data through online, public databases. In combination with other methods, open-source trade data could be used to detect anomalies in the biological weapons regime.
AI and the digitization of data create new ways to enhance confidence in compliance with WMD regimes. In the context of the chemical weapons regime, the digitization of the chemical industry as part of a wider shift to Industry 4.0 presents possibilities for streamlining declarations under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and for facilitating CWC regulatory requirements. AI tools and digitization could further enable sampling and analysis of scheduled chemicals for CWC verification purposes by collecting, integrating and analysing multiple streams of remote sensing data from a diversity of sensor types. Data analytics that enable diagnosis of plant diseases from digital images of plant stress are intriguing as a method to recognize signatures of a toxic chemical exposure. Similar approaches might be used to identify chemical weapons agents among recovered old and abandoned munitions.
The adoption of new technologies in WMD-related regimes is neither inevitable nor immediate. It depends on the fulfilment of wider economic, political and technical requirements. To be effective, States and the international organizations dedicated to WMD treaties may require
access to external expertise and new equipment. These organizations will also need to validate both the technologies and the methods for using these technologies to ensure that they are sufficiently robust. Additional tools with which to manage ever-growing amounts of data from an expanding range of sources may also be required. The integration of new compliance-related technologies may further require overcoming challenges in the structural and organizational culture of international organizations.
The successful adoption of new technologies in support of WMD treaty compliance also requires States and stakeholders to undertake a realistic evaluation of relative advantages (and disadvantages) of these novel technologies. Such an evaluation needs to consider the limits of technological “solutions”, the integrity of data they produce, the extent of intrusiveness and the financial costs.