CODEC - modelling consumer decisions towards energy technology adoption
conference paper
The transition towards sustainable energy requires the adoption of numerous new technologies. Policies aimed at the stimulation of adoption are not always as successful as planned. In this paper we present CODEC (COnsumer DEcision Comprehended), a psychology based, quantified consumer decision model that supports policy makers and companies to predict and enhance the adoption of new sustainable technologies by consumers. Adding psychological knowledge to models is challenging, but pivotal for predicting and stimulating adoption since it is people who will have to adopt. CODEC models the decision-making process for various consumer groups for a specific innovation and its alternatives, comparing policy measures designed to expedite the rate of adoption. The model shows a product's market share development over time, and the barriers for full scale adoption, providing input for concrete policy recommendations. In order to reach these results, the model balances psychological modelling aspects and theories, including the effects of habits, factual barriers, social processes, and economic irrationalities in the consumer decision processes. In the model these aspects are represented by fourteen questions in three phases: Attention (e.g., for how many consumers is there a decision moment?), enablers (e.g., how many consumers could pay for this innovation?), and intention (e.g., does the innovation provide status?). The model thus provides a more holistic evaluation compared to many economic optimization models and provides quantitative insights into how policies affect various non-economic elements in the consumer decision process. To illustrate the model, the paper shows results from the application of a case study: The adoption of solar panels.
TNO Identifier
876300
ISSN
16537025
ISBN
9789198387841
Publisher
European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy ECEEE
Source title
Proceedings ECEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency: is efficient sufficient?, 3-8 June 2019 (online event)
Collation
6 p.
Place of publication
Stockholm, Sweden
Pages
1019-1024
Files
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