Quantitative risk analysis of ammunition transshipments in harbors
conference paper
Ammunition transshipments are a key part of the logistical operations of the armed forces and are often executed via ships. These transshipments pose a risk to the people present in the area surrounding the harbor, where the loading/unloading of the ship takes place. A method is presented to perform a quantitative risk assessment of such ammunition transshipments, where a scenario based approach is used. Engineering models are used to calculate the possible explosion effects (blast, debris/fragments and heat radiation) and Probit relations are used to determine the probability of lethality for unprotected persons. Two well-known concepts to describe third party risk are used to show a practical example of the risk analysis method. With this quantitative method an assessment can be made if the planned ammunition transshipments do not create too great a risk for the people in the area surrounding a particular harbor.
TNO Identifier
873108
Source title
International Explosives Safety Symposium & Exposition, San Diego, CA, USA, 6-9 August 2018
Collation
10 p.
Files
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