Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil
article
This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change
impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The
approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation
strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of
sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely
yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling
suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose
optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change
impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the
other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts,
meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation
efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation.
When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead
to a lower total investment level
impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The
approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation
strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of
sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely
yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling
suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose
optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change
impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the
other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts,
meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation
efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation.
When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead
to a lower total investment level
TNO Identifier
844029
Source
Energy, 164, pp. 1161-1177.
Pages
1161-1177
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