Operational flexibility and economics of power plants in future low-carbon power systems
article
Future power systems will require large shares of low-carbon generators such as renewables and power plants with CCS to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. Intermittent renewables increase the system-wide demand for flexibility and affect the operation of thermal power plants. To further investigate the technical and economic feasibility of future power systems, a modeling toolbox was developed. It consists of a soft-linked power system optimization model (MARKAL-NL-UU) and an hourly power system simulation model (REPOWERS) that explicitly accounts for flexibility parameters based on a comprehensive literature review. With this toolbox, the technical and economic performance of power plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is explored for four future scenarios. We find that future low-carbon power systems will have large shares of intermittent renewable sources (19-42%) and generators with CCS (23-64% of power generated), as their flexibility is not affected by the capture unit. The 0.6-1.6% efficiency reductions of thermal power plants are mainly driven by variability in load and exchange flows, and to a lesser extent by intermittent renewables. Economic analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios are on average 17% (±15%) more expensive per MWh generated than the baseline scenario. Moreover, the current energy-based market model generates insufficient revenues: the price received per MWh covers only 84% (±30%) of the total generation costs per MWh. This will reduce new investments in generation capacity and reduce power system adequacy. New or additional market designs are required to ensure sufficient in future low-carbon power systems.
TNO Identifier
849443
Publisher
ECN
Collation
21 p.
Place of publication
Petten
Files