Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges
conference paper
Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized
as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a
network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic
Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an
attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method
of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to indirectly elicit
transition probabilities for a Markov chain that probabilistically describes how each type bridge temporally
deteriorates. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to
the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are
subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn
as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a
network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic
Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an
attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method
of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to indirectly elicit
transition probabilities for a Markov chain that probabilistically describes how each type bridge temporally
deteriorates. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to
the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are
subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn
TNO Identifier
573575
Source title
Fifth International Symposium on Life-cycle Civil Engineering 16-19 October 2016, Delft, The Netherlands
Pages
1-7
Files
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