Assesssing the prospective resource base for enhanced geothermal systems in Europe
article
In this study the resource base for EGS (enhanced geothermal systems) in Europe was quantified
and economically constrained, applying a discounted cash-flow model to different techno-economic scenarios
for future EGS in 2020, 2030, and 2050. Temperature is a critical parameter that controls the amount of thermal
energy available in the subsurface. Therefore, the first step in assessing the European resource base for EGS is the construction of a subsurface temperature model of onshore Europe. Subsurface temperatures were computed
to a depth of 10 km below ground level for a regular 3-D hexahedral grid with a horizontal resolution of 10 km
and a vertical resolution of 250 m. Vertical conductive heat transport was considered as the main heat transfer
mechanism. Surface temperature and basal heat flow were used as boundary conditions for the top and bottom of
the model, respectively. If publicly available, the most recent and comprehensive regional temperature models,
based on data from wells, were incorporated
With the modeled subsurface temperatures and future technical and economic scenarios, the technical potential
and minimum levelized cost of energy (LCOE) were calculated for each grid cell of the temperature
model. Calculations for a typical EGS scenario yield costs of EUR 215 MWh-1 in 2020, EUR 127 MWH-1 in
2030, and EUR 70 MWh-1 in 2050 are imposed to the calculated LCOE values in each grid cell to limit the technical potential, resulting in an economic potential for Europe of 19GWe in 2020, 22GWe in 2030, and 522GWe in 2050. The results of our approach do not only provide an indication of prospective areas for future EGS in Europe, but also show a more realistic cost determined and depth-dependent distribution of the technical potential by applying different well cost models for 2020, 2030, and 2050
and economically constrained, applying a discounted cash-flow model to different techno-economic scenarios
for future EGS in 2020, 2030, and 2050. Temperature is a critical parameter that controls the amount of thermal
energy available in the subsurface. Therefore, the first step in assessing the European resource base for EGS is the construction of a subsurface temperature model of onshore Europe. Subsurface temperatures were computed
to a depth of 10 km below ground level for a regular 3-D hexahedral grid with a horizontal resolution of 10 km
and a vertical resolution of 250 m. Vertical conductive heat transport was considered as the main heat transfer
mechanism. Surface temperature and basal heat flow were used as boundary conditions for the top and bottom of
the model, respectively. If publicly available, the most recent and comprehensive regional temperature models,
based on data from wells, were incorporated
With the modeled subsurface temperatures and future technical and economic scenarios, the technical potential
and minimum levelized cost of energy (LCOE) were calculated for each grid cell of the temperature
model. Calculations for a typical EGS scenario yield costs of EUR 215 MWh-1 in 2020, EUR 127 MWH-1 in
2030, and EUR 70 MWh-1 in 2050 are imposed to the calculated LCOE values in each grid cell to limit the technical potential, resulting in an economic potential for Europe of 19GWe in 2020, 22GWe in 2030, and 522GWe in 2050. The results of our approach do not only provide an indication of prospective areas for future EGS in Europe, but also show a more realistic cost determined and depth-dependent distribution of the technical potential by applying different well cost models for 2020, 2030, and 2050
Topics
TNO Identifier
520758
Source
Geothermal Energy Science, 2(December), pp. 55-71.
Pages
55-71