The Moment Model Alternative to Cooke’s Classical Model
conference paper
Quantitative expert judgement is used in many areas of risk analysis to provide assessments of uncertainty. A leading method is Cooke’s classical model, which provides a way of weighting experts depending on their performance in answering so-called calibration questions. The moment method for expert judgement combination is an alternative to Cooke’s method which provides a different way of calibrating experts. It has better theoretical properties in that it uses a strictly proper scoring rule, that is, an expert who wishes to maximise his score can only do so by stating what he actually believes. The method also requires the specification of weights for the calibration process. In this paper we consider a special case of the moment model that scores location and variability assessments. We provide an approach to setting the calibration weights and repeat the comparison of this moment model with Cooke’s classical model we conducted earlier for this special case.
TNO Identifier
469960
ISBN
9781622764365
Publisher
Curran Associates, Inc
Source title
11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012, 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. Vol.3
Place of publication
Red Hook, NY
Pages
2318-2327
Files
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