Does more sophisticated modeling reduce model uncertainty? A case study on vibration predictions
article
In this paper, the reliability of vibration predictions in civil engineering is quantified. Emphasis is laid on the vibration predictions for road- and rail traffic and vibrations from building activities such as (sheet)pile driving. Several kinds of prediction techniques were investigated: expert opinion, very simple empirical models, dedicated models, and FEM. The prediction techniques were applied by four different institutes which are leading in the Dutch practice in vibration prediction: TNO, GeoDelft, Delft University of Technology and Holland Railconsult. Predictions were generated for a variety of characteristic situations and were compared with measurements.
Besides the total uncertainty, which can be derived out of the difference between prediction and measurement, a break-down of uncertainty sources was made.
Besides the total uncertainty, which can be derived out of the difference between prediction and measurement, a break-down of uncertainty sources was made.
Topics
Civil engineeringExpert judgmentModel reliabilityModel uncertaintyUncertainty analysisVibration predictionsApproximation theoryBoundary conditionsBuildingsCivil engineeringFinite element methodMathematical modelsSoilsTraffic controlExpert judgementModel reliabilityModel uncertaintyUncertainty analysisVibration predictionsVibration measurement
TNO Identifier
330848
Source
Heron, 49(2), pp. 119-137.
Pages
119-137