Independent checks for validation of CH4 emission estimates
conference paper
The agreed emission reductions in the Kyoto Protocol require methods to establish the quality and accuracy of the in-ventory data and to monitor compliance with the Protocol. The IPCC Expert Meeting in November 1997 in the Nether-lands concluded that an assessment of inventory data quality was strongly supported by independent checks and addi-tional analysis of uncertainties in the emissions inventories.
In this paper three connected validation procedures have been applied for a methane emission inventory, namely (i) the comparison of emission inventories, (ii) the comparison of modelled with observed methane concentrations, and (iii) the comparison of bottom-up emission estimates with inversely modelled emission estimates. The results are based on proj-ect 951201of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. This project has been initiated to establish and validate a detailed CH4 emission database for the Netherlands and Northwestern Europe (METDAT). Methods and results of this project are presented in this paper.
The technique of emission validation by modelling methane concentrations with the bottom-up estimated emission data as input for the model and comparing the results with measured concentrations has been proven quite successful. How-ever, with the technique applied so far we have not been able to indicate whether the individual sources are estimated realistically as well. The overall inaccuracy of this method of emission validation will be 15% at least.
The results of the inverse modelling applications indicate that atmospheric modelling can be used to independently vali-date emission data if accurate measurements are available. The inverse modelling results, however, are not fully consis-tent for the moment. These results do not yet enable a clear determination of over- or underestimates in emission inven-tory data. Also, these models validate the overall emission inventory data and do not allow for the determination of the quality of contributing sources yet
In this paper three connected validation procedures have been applied for a methane emission inventory, namely (i) the comparison of emission inventories, (ii) the comparison of modelled with observed methane concentrations, and (iii) the comparison of bottom-up emission estimates with inversely modelled emission estimates. The results are based on proj-ect 951201of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. This project has been initiated to establish and validate a detailed CH4 emission database for the Netherlands and Northwestern Europe (METDAT). Methods and results of this project are presented in this paper.
The technique of emission validation by modelling methane concentrations with the bottom-up estimated emission data as input for the model and comparing the results with measured concentrations has been proven quite successful. How-ever, with the technique applied so far we have not been able to indicate whether the individual sources are estimated realistically as well. The overall inaccuracy of this method of emission validation will be 15% at least.
The results of the inverse modelling applications indicate that atmospheric modelling can be used to independently vali-date emission data if accurate measurements are available. The inverse modelling results, however, are not fully consis-tent for the moment. These results do not yet enable a clear determination of over- or underestimates in emission inven-tory data. Also, these models validate the overall emission inventory data and do not allow for the determination of the quality of contributing sources yet
TNO Identifier
256215
Publisher
TNO
Source title
Symposium van het Nationaal Onderzoek Programma Mondiale Luchtverontreiniging en Klimaatverandering (NOP), Garderen 29-30 oktober 1998
Pages
1-10
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