BANSHEE–A MATLAB toolbox for Non-Parametric Bayesian Networks

Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels

This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding...

Computing response time distributions using iterative probabilistic model checking

System designers need to have insight in the response times of service systems to see if they meet performance requirements. We present a high-level evaluation technique to obtain the distribution of services completion times. It is based on a high-level domain-specific language that hides the underlying technicalities from the system designer....

Uncertainty quantification of aeroacoustic power sources in corrugated pipes

Gas transport in corrugated pipes often exhibit whistling behavior, due to periodic flow-induced pulsations generated in the pipe cavities. These aero-acoustic sources are strongly dependent on the geometrical dimensions and features of the cavities. As a result, uncertainties in the exact shape and geometry play a significant role in...

Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment approaches and methodologies. Food allergens...

Introducing the core probability framework and discrete-element core probability model for efficient stochastic macroscopic modelling

In this contribution the Core Probability Framework (CPF) is introduced with the application of the Discrete-Element Core Probability Model (DE-CPM) as a new DNL for dynamic macroscopic modelling of stochastic traffic flow. The model is demonstrated for validation in a test case and for computational efficiency on two simple networks. The CPF...

From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds for food allergens. More and more challenge data...

Concentrations of undeclared allergens in food products can reach levels that are relevant for public health

Food products can become contaminated with food allergens due to cross-contact. Precautionary 'may contain' labelling may alert to the possible presence of an allergen, but guidance for such labelling is lacking. As a result, allergy information on the packaging may not be reliable and allergic consumers might be at risk of allergic reactions...

Probabilistic risk assessment model for allergens in food: Sensitivity analysis of the minimum eliciting dose and food consumption

Previously, TNO developed a probabilistic model to predict the likelihood of an allergic reaction, resulting in a quantitative assessment of the risk associated with unintended exposure to food allergens. The likelihood is estimated by including in the model the proportion of the population who is allergic, the proportion consuming the food and...

Durability of marine concrete structures - field investigations and modelling

This article presents a series of investigations on six concrete structures along the North Sea coast in The Netherlands. They had ages between 18 and 41 years and most of them were made using Blast Furnace Slag cement. Visual inspections showed corrosion damage in only one structure, related to relatively low cover depths. All structures showed...

RECOFF Task 3: Optimisation of the Oampersand M costs to lower the energy costs

<p class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-hyphenate: none"><wegspanlang=EN-GB>A Probabilistic O&M Cost Optimisation model is presented, with which the operation and maintenance strategy of offshore windfarms can be improved. Basis for the application of this model is an extensive analysis of the fault...

Validation and sensitivity analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to micronutrients: An example based on vitamin B6

Probabilistic modelling can be used to get an insight into the variability and uncertainty of the nutrient intake in a population. When a probabilistic model is used, it is important that it is validated. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the model output can give an insight into the most important input variables of the model and can be...

Assessment of intake from the diet

Exposure assessment is one of the key parts of the risk assessment process. Only intake of toxicologically significant amounts can lead to adverse health effects even for a relatively toxic substance. In the case of chemicals in foods this is based on three major aspects: (i) how to determine quantitatively the presence of a chemical in...