The statistical projection of global GHG emissions from a consumption perspective

Projections of future emissions based on current trends are vital to assess the performance of mitigation efforts and to devise mitigation strategies. However, previous studies are uncertain how the persistence and convergence of mitigation efforts may impact future trajectories from the consumption perspective. Here we assume regional...

A Bayesian modeling approach for estimation of a shape-free groundwater age distribution using multiple tracers

Due to the mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical...

A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams' risk assessment: An application

Dams are civil engineering structures to hinder water flows. Criteria such as purpose, size and construction material are useful to categorise them. The latter is used to classify ‘earth dams’, which tend to have higher risk levels than other types. The failure of a dam leads to significant economic loss and usually to catastrophic impacts. In...

Advanced REACH Tool (ART): Overview of version 1.0 and research needs

This paper provides an outline of the Advanced REACH Tool (ART) version 1.0 and a discussion of how it could be further developed. ART is a higher tier exposure assessment tool that combines mechanistically modelled inhalation exposure predictions with available exposure data using a Bayesian approach. ART assesses exposure for scenarios across...

Unraveling reservoir compaction parameters through the inversion of surface subsidence observations

In an attempt to derive more information on the parameters driving compaction, this paper explores the feasibility of a method utilizing data on compaction-induced subsidence. We commence by using a Bayesian inversion scheme to infer the reservoir compaction from subsidence observations. The method's strength is that it incorporates all the...

A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing the impact of exploration prospect interdependency: An application to predict gas discoveries in the Netherlands

Prospect interdependencies, if present and positively correlated, result in a higher standard deviation of the portfolio volumetric expectation curve, compared to a portfolio with independent prospects. This wider uncertainty range offers options for companies to increase the expected cumulative net present value (NPV) of the exploration...

Correlation between hydrocarbon reservoir properties and induced seismicity in the Netherlands

Earthquakes induced by gas production are a social concern in the Netherlands. Over the last two decades, a total of about 350 such earthquakes have been recorded, with magnitudes ranging up to 3.5 on Richter's scale. The new Dutch mining law prescribes the operators to give a quantitative estimation of the likelihood of future seismic activity ...