Title
Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates
Author
Baart, F.
Bakker, M.A.J.
van Dongeren, A.
den Heijer, C.
van Heteren, S.
Smit, M.W.J.
van Koningsveld, M.
Pool, A.
Publication year
2011
Abstract
For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events. © Author(s) 2011.
Subject
Earth & Environment
GM - Geomodelling
EELS - Earth, Environmental and Life Sciences
Geosciences
coastal protection
eighteenth century
flood
numerical model
probability
reconstruction
risk assessment
storm surge
Netherlands
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bb3bc267-d796-499e-9f6f-54f38d6d85f1
TNO identifier
442991
ISSN
1561-8633
Source
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11 (10), 2791-2801
Document type
article