Title
Probabilistic risk assessment model for allergens in food: Sensitivity analysis of the minimum eliciting dose and food consumption
Author
Kruizinga, A.G.
Briggs, D.
Crevel, R.W.R.
Knulst, A.C.
Bosch, L.M.C.v.d.
Houben, G.F.
TNO Kwaliteit van Leven
KvL
Publication year
2008
Abstract
Previously, TNO developed a probabilistic model to predict the likelihood of an allergic reaction, resulting in a quantitative assessment of the risk associated with unintended exposure to food allergens. The likelihood is estimated by including in the model the proportion of the population who is allergic, the proportion consuming the food and the amount consumed, the likelihood of the food containing an adventitious allergen and its concentration, and the minimum eliciting dose (MED) distribution for the allergen. In the present work a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify which parts of the model most influence the output. A shift in the distribution of the MED reflecting a more potent allergen, and an increase in the proportion of the population consuming a food, increased the number of estimated allergic reactions considerably. In contrast, the number of estimated allergic reactions hardly changed when the MEDs were based on a more severe response, or when the amount of food consumed was increased. Development of this work will help to generate a more accurate picture of the potential public health impact of allergens. It highlights areas where research is best focused, specifically the determination of minimum eliciting doses and understanding of the food choices of allergic individuals. © 2008 ILSI Europe and TNO Quality of Life.
Subject
Nutrition
Food and Chemical Risk Analysis
Allergens
Food
Modelling
Probabilistic model
Sensitivity analyses
article
bread
cacao
dose response
food allergy
food intake
minimum eliciting dose
nonhuman
population risk
probability
quantitative analysis
risk assessment
sensitivity analysis
Allergens
Animals
Dietary Proteins
Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
Eating
Food
Food Hypersensitivity
Humans
Models, Statistical
Netherlands
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8f08662e-0e62-45a8-9be2-b3a27e097b51
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fct.2007.09.109
TNO identifier
240775
ISSN
0278-6915
Source
Food and Chemical Toxicology, 46 (5), 1437-1443
Document type
article