Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Bertram, C.
Riahi, K.
Hilaire, J.
Bosetti, V.
Drouet, L.
Fricko, O.
Malik, A.
Nogueira, L.P.
van der Zwaan, B.C.C.
van Ruijven, B.
van Vuuren, D.
Weitzel, M.
Dalla Longa, F.
de Boer, H.S.
Emmerling, J.
Fosse, F.
Fragkiadakis, K.
Harmsen, M.
Keramidas, K.
Kishimoto, P.N.
Kriegler, E.
Krey, V.
Paroussos, L.
Saygin, D.
Vrontisi, Z.
Luderer, G.

2021

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 ◦C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 ◦C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 ◦C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 ◦C in all models, and 2 ◦C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission.

Agreement
Energy investments
Mitigation policies
Climate policy
Integrated assessment modelling
Energy Efficiency
Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ebafb19e-b5aa-4706-9e29-78e3536b86b4

957208

Environmental Research Letters, 16 (16), 1-12

article