Potential role of natural gas infrastructure in China to supply low-carbon gases during 2020–2050
As natural gas (NG) demand increases in China, the question arises how the NG infrastructure fit into a low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions future towards 2050. Herein, the potential role of the NG infrastructure in supplying low-carbon gases during 2020–2050 for China at a provincial resolution was analyzed for different scenarios. In total, four low-carbon gases were considered in this study: biomethane, bio-synthetic methane, hydrogen, and low-carbon synthetic methane. The results show that the total potential of low-carbon gas pro duction can increase from 1.21 EJ to 5.25 EJ during 2020–2050, which can replace 20%–67% of the imported gas. In particular, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia contribute 17% of China’s low-carbon gas production. As the deployment of NG infrastructure can be very different, three scenarios replacing imported pipeline NG were found to reduce the expansion of gas infrastructure by 35%–42%, while the three scenarios replacing LNG im ports were found to increase infrastructure expansion by 31%–53%, as compared to the base case. The cumu lative avoided GHG emissions for the 6 analyzed scenarios were 6.0–8.3 Gt CO2. The GHG avoidance costs were highly influenced by the NG price. This study shows that the NG infrastructure has the potential to supply low carbon gases in China, thereby significantly reducing GHG emissions and increasing both China’s short- and long-term gas supply independence.
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Natural gas infrastructure
Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands
Applied Energy, 306 (306), 1-22