Cross-sectoral integrated assessment of alternatives for climate mitigation in Madagascar

Cross-sectoral integrated assessment of alternatives for climate mitigation in Madagascar

Nogueira, L.P.
Dalla Longa, F.
van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2020

Using the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN, we analyze how Madagascar’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement can be implemented in both the energy and non-energy sectors. We explore how the country’s national climate goal for 2030 can be reached under two different cost levels for climate change mitigation through land-use change. We find that land use is the main sector in which large greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions must be achieved, but there are opportunities to also exploit the country’s abundant domestic low-carbon energy resources. We explore the options for such a transformation of Madagascar’s energy system, which today largely relies on the use of biomass. If GHG emissions reduction in land use is hard or too costly to implement, e.g. as a result of land property rights or forest logging practices, total final energy use needs to be almost entirely renewable by 2050. The power sector needs to rely on 100% renewables already by 2030. In our scenario runs, biomass, hydropower, solar and wind energy account for the vast majority of electricity generation in Madagascar from 2030 onwards. Electrification is introduced in the residential sector – notably for cooking. Cumulative additional undiscounted investment requirements may be as high as US$ 8 billion up to 2050.

Climate change
Energy
IAM
Land use
Madagascar
NDC
Carbon emission
Electrification
Environmental assessment
Environmental policy
Greenhouse gas
Mitigation
Sustainable Development Goal
Sustainable Energy
Energy

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cb313855-4835-4ce9-94a7-f1b9f2c00cb9

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1791030

955377

Taylor and Francis, London, UK

1469-3062

Climate Policy

article