Print Email Facebook Twitter Reliably Assessing the Effectiveness of a Plan Using Models of Varying Fidelity and Under Time Constraints Title Reliably Assessing the Effectiveness of a Plan Using Models of Varying Fidelity and Under Time Constraints Author de Jong, S. Noordkamp, H.W. van der Poel, N.C.L. Smit, S.K. Publication year 2015 Abstract Assessing the effectiveness of a plan, given multiple potential scenarios, is a common problem for analysts, especially in the military domain. This problem can seriously impact the safety of the people that are involved in planned missions. More precisely, the availability of multiple models, with varying levels of fidelity, leads to the complex task of selecting the best model(s) to assess the effectiveness of a plan. Under time constraints, optimal model selection depends not only on the fidelity of the models at hand, but also on the nature of the possible scenarios the plan applies to, such as the potential presence of stochastic variables and the number of different scenarios that have to be evaluated in order to obtain a reliable estimate of the true effectiveness of the plan. In this paper, two algorithms are presented to maximize the reliability of the obtained plan effectiveness under time constraints. To this end, the algorithms select the best model(s) as well as the most appropriate scenarios. Both algorithms have been tested on synthetic data as well as on two Navy-related use cases. Results show that both algorithms reach a higher level of reliability within the given amount of time than conventional approaches. Thus, they allow analysts to better assess the effectiveness of their plans and therefore they increase the safety of everyone involved in planned missions Subject Human & Operational ModellingMSG - Modelling Simulation & Gaming MO - Military OperationsELSS - Earth, Life and Social SciencesDefence ResearchSimulationDefence, Safety and SecurityScenariosEffectivenessModel selectionfidelityReliabilityMilitary operations To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c2bb57cc-585d-4e6f-883e-a8e4d7d9b61d TNO identifier 530703 Source Proceedings Interservice / Industry Training, Simulation and Education Conference, I/ITSEC 2015, 30 November - 4 December 2015, Orlando, FL, USA, 1767-1778 Article number 15060 Document type conference paper Files To receive the publication files, please send an e-mail request to TNO Library.