Title
FEP Analysis and Markov Chains
Author
Nepveu, M.
Yavuz, F.
David, P.
TNO Bouw en Ondergrond
Publication year
2009
Abstract
Uncertainties related with underground CO2 storage play a vital role in risk assessment with respect to Carbon storage and capture projects (CCS). The main purpose of risk assessment is to determine a qualitative and quantitative picture of hazardous processes or events. One makes a comprehensive inventory of risk factors, and stores the results in a FEP (Features, Events and Process) database. The properties of the geological system itself and natural or human -induced processes determine the future system p roperties. The FEP's may interact. In this paper we propose to describe this interaction of FEPs within the framework of (discrete time) Markov Chains. In such an approach various states are defined. The system can "jump" from one state to another. The probabilistic evolution of the system can be followed, and conclusions can be drawn as to visit times of the various states. Also, the most likely ultimate fate of a system in dependence of initial state can be determined. This approach offers a comple mentary supporting tool for scenario-thinking, as it takes into account the evolution of all possible follow -ups of relevant physical processes and events quantitatively. It is not about just following a few scenario's. Without the machinery of Markov Chains this can hardly be done in full. An added bonus of this approach is that questions of policy makers, and of licensing authorities can be answered in a numerical way. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Subject
Geosciences
FEP Analysis
Markov Chains
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Carbon storage
Discrete time
FEP Analysis
Geological systems
Hazardous process
Initial state
Licensing authority
Markov Chain
Markov Chains
Physical process
Policy makers
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Risk factors
Supporting tool
Chains
Machinery
Markov processes
Risk analysis
Risk management
Risk perception
Safety factor
Risk assessment
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TNO identifier
241396
ISSN
1876-6102
Source
Energy Procedia, 1 (1), 2519-2523
Document type
article