Print Email Facebook Twitter Identifying young children without overweight at high risk for adult overweight: The Terneuzen Birth Cohort Title Identifying young children without overweight at high risk for adult overweight: The Terneuzen Birth Cohort Author de Kroon, M.L.A. Renders, C.M. van Wouwe, J.P. Hirasing, R.A. van Buuren, S. Publication year 2011 Abstract Objective. To develop a tool to identify children with high risk of adult overweight (AO), especially before developing overweight, based on body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score(s) (SDS) changes between 2-6 years (y) of age. Methods. We fitted a linear spline model to BMI SDS of 762 young Caucasian adults from the Terneuzen Birth Cohort at fixed ages between birth and 18 y. By linear regression analysis, we assessed the increase in explained variance of the adult BMI SDS by adding the BMI SDS at 2 y to the models including the BMI SDS at 4 y, 6 y and both 4 y and 6 y. AO risk was modelled by logistic regression. The internal validity was estimated using bootstrap techniques. Risk models were represented as risk score diagrams by gender for the age intervals 2-4 y and 2-6 y. Results. In addition to the BMI SDS at certain ages, the previous BMI SDS during childhood is positively related to adult weight. Receiver Operating Curves analysis provides insight into sensible cut-offs (AUC varied from 0.76 to 0.83). The sensitivity and specificity for 2-6 y at the cut-off of 0.25 and 0.5 are respectively, 0.76 and 0.74, and 0.36 and 0.93, whereas the PPV is 0.52 and 0.67, respectively. Conclusions. The risk score diagrams can serve as a tool for young children for primary prevention of adult overweight. To avoid wrongly designating children at risk for AO, we propose a cut-off with a high specificity at the risk of approximately 0.5. After external validation, wider adoption of this tool might enhance primary AO prevention. © 2011 Informa Healthcare. Subject HumanCH - Child Health LS - Life StyleBSS - Behavioural and Societal SciencesHealthAdult overweight riskBirth cohortBody mass index standard deviation scores (BMI SDS)ChildhoodPrediction tool To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:abaebd67-a3dd-48c2-8d55-1ee69c0b7445 DOI https://doi.org/10.3109/17477166.2010.526220 TNO identifier 431404 ISSN 1747-7166 Source International Journal of Pediatric Obesity, 6 (2 -2), e187-e195 Document type article Files To receive the publication files, please send an e-mail request to TNO Library.