Title
An Agent-Based Model for Emergent Opponent Behavior
Author
van der Zwet, K.
Barros, A.I.
van Engers, T.M.
van der Vecht, B.
Publication year
2019
Abstract
Organized crime, insurgency and terrorist organizations have a large and undermining impact on societies. This highlights the urgency to better understand the complex dynamics of these individuals and organizations in order to timely detect critical social phase transitions that form a risk for society. In this paper we introduce a new multi-level modelling approach that integrates insights from complex systems, criminology, psychology, and organizational studies with agent-based modelling. We use a bottom-up approach to model the active and adaptive reactions by individuals to the society, the economic situation and law enforcement activity. This approach enables analyzing the behavioral transitions of individuals and associated micro processes, and the emergent networks and organizations influenced by events at meso- and macro-level. At a meso-level it provides an experimentation analysis modelling platform of the development of opponent organization subject to the competitive characteristics of the environment and possible interventions by law enforcement. While our model is theoretically founded on findings in literature and empirical validation is still work in progress, our current model already enables a better understanding of the mechanism leading to social transitions at the macro-level. The potential of this approach is illustrated with computational results.
Subject
Opponent behavior
Opponent networks
Multidisciplinary
Complex adaptive systems
Agent-based modelling
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:aa0404b7-29d1-4cc7-9678-8cc15e4cafce
TNO identifier
867483
Publisher
Springer Nature, Basel, Switzerland
Source
International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS), 12-14 June 2019, Faro, Portugal, 290-303
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Document type
conference paper