Title
Quantitative risk analysis of ammunition transshipments in harbors
Author
Dijkers, H.P.A.
Hooijmeijer, P.A.
Publication year
2018
Abstract
Ammunition transshipments are a key part of the logistical operations of the armed forces and are often executed via ships. These transshipments pose a risk to the people present in the area surrounding the harbor, where the loading/unloading of the ship takes place. A method is presented to perform a quantitative risk assessment of such ammunition transshipments, where a scenario based approach is used. Engineering models are used to calculate the possible explosion effects (blast, debris/fragments and heat radiation) and Probit relations are used to determine the probability of lethality for unprotected persons. Two well-known concepts to describe third party risk are used to show a practical example of the risk analysis method. With this quantitative method an assessment can be made if the planned ammunition transshipments do not create too great a risk for the people in the area surrounding a particular harbor.
Subject
Risk analysis
Ammunition
Transshipment
Harbor
QRA
Ship
Mechatronics, Mechanics & Materials
EBP - Explosions, Ballistics & Protection
TS - Technical Sciences
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a991c5f5-2c7b-4fa2-b37a-32e2db3ee5d1
TNO identifier
873108
Source
International Explosives Safety Symposium & Exposition, San Diego, CA, USA, 6-9 August 2018
Document type
conference paper