Einrichtung einer umweltzone und ihre wirksamkeit auf die PM10-feinstaubkonzentration - Eine pilotanalyse am beispiel München (Introduction of a low-emission zone and the effect on air pollutant concentration of particulate matter (PM10) - A pilot study in Munich)
Since the introduction of low emission zones in Germany in 2008 the question of their efficiency has been debated. In this pilot study, measurement data collected before and after the introduction of the low emission zone in Munich (October 2007 until January 2008 vs. October 2008 until Januar 2009) were analysed on the basis of matched quadruples. Applying previously described methods (Morfeld et al. 2011), continuously measured half-hour fine dust concentration data (PM10) - simultaneously determined at an index station situated inside the low emission zone and a reference station outside of the zone - were contrasted and analysed (difference score method in the two-period case). Meteorological parameters (height of the inversion base, amount of precipitation, wind velocity) as well as baseline data of index and reference stations were taken into account as covariates in regression analyses. The statistical approach was successfully validated in an analysis of simulated data. 26438 quadrupels could be matched for analysis. Averages of PM10 concentration values before (after) introducing the low emission zone were 33.9 μg/m3 (39.0 μg/m3) at 5 index stations and 24.6 μg/m3 (30.5 μg/m3) at 2 reference stations. Taking covariates into account, an additive model estimated the change in concentration associated to the introduction of the low emission zone as +0.017 μg/m3 (0.95-CI: -0.33 μg/m3, +0.37 μg/m3), a multiplicative model estimated the relative effect as -0.5% (0.95-CI: -0.12%, +0.30%). The results of this study differ relevantly from the findings of an earlier investigation by Cyrys et al. (2009) who analyzed the same data. This analysis does not prove the effectiveness of Munich's low emission zone. This study also points out that the methodological approach is crucial for a scientifically reliable evaluation of the efficacy of low emission zones. Strict rules need to be followed in order to prevent from misinterpretations.
Earth & Environment
To reference this document use:
CAS - Climate, Air and Sustainability
EELS - Earth, Environmental and Life Sciences
Zentralblatt fur Arbeitsmedizin, Arbeitsschutz und Ergonomie, 63 (2), 104-115