Title
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
Author
Sofiev, M.
Berger, U.
Prank, M.
Vira, J.
Arteta, J.
Belmonte, J.
Bergmann, K.C.
Chéroux, F.
Elbern, H.
Friese, E.
Galan, C.
Gehrig, R.
Khvorostyanov, D.
Kranenburg, R.
Kumar, U.
Marécal, V.
Meleux, F.
Menut, L.
Pessi, A.M.
Robertson, L.
Ritenberga, O.
Rodinkova, V.
Saarto, A.
Segers, A.
Severova, E.
Sauliene, I.
Siljamo, P.
Steensen, B.M.
Teinemaa, E.
Thibaudon, M.
Peuch, V.H.
Publication year
2015
Abstract
This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting. Author(s) 2015.
Subject
Urban Mobility & Environment
CAS - Climate, Air and Sustainability
ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences
Environment & Sustainability
Climate
Urbanisation
Aerobiology
Aerosol
Ensemble forecasting
Flowering
Modeling
Pollen
Europe
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c6bbada-4a8c-4347-a5e3-1b41e2d71c0f
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015
TNO identifier
527790
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
1680-7316
Source
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (14), 8115-8130
Document type
article