A Multi-Methodology Framework for Modelling Opponent Organisations in the Operational Context

The hyper connectivity of global, regional and local societies has increased the dynamics and volatility of conflicts. Conflicts are no longer contained by borders and ideologies and call for an integrated approach that takes into consideration the involved opponent organisations. However, limited modelling tools are available to provide insight into the effect of interventions on (human) opponent behaviour and in particular on opponent organisation resilience. To achieve this goal, it is important to not only consider the modus operandi and chain of actions that lead to a violent attack, but also the opponent organisation, its social networks as well as the society and physical environment in which it takes place, as all these aspects may influence each other and the effectiveness of interventions. Therefore, we introduce a generic multi-methodology framework combining Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) and System Dynamics (SD) that can be tailored for a specific opponent context. The framework distinguishes three levels of modelling: the macro-level contains the context and environment, the meso-level models organisations and networks, and the micro-level models individual behaviour. This multi-methodology framework allows to combine detailed modelling, e.g. for the opponent organisation, with high-level models, for example economic developments. This framework has been explored for a case study based on an opponent insurgent organisation active in a nation and region. In this area there is a single opponent insurgent organisation trying to enlarge their span of control. This opponent insurgent organisation can actively recruit new members and setup violent actions as well as acquire funding for their activities. On the other hand, a government with policing and intelligence capabilities tries to counter this insurgent group. Using this case study we will show how the modelling framework enables modelling of different opponent organisation structures and government interventions, and shows some promising results in terms of modelling the resilience dynamics of the opponent organisation over time