Print Email Facebook Twitter Probability of large fire in a road tunnel; A Bayesian approach Title Probability of large fire in a road tunnel; A Bayesian approach Author Nelisse, R.M.L. Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. Publication year 2016 Abstract Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a “risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out” . In the Netherlands, the risk of death for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitative risk analysis, which is called “QRA-tunnels”. The probability of fire that has been used in the model was expected to be too high compared to the probability of fire based on statistics . In this paper a Bayesian approach is presented based on a research study enabling the calculation of the probability of a large fire in a road tunnel . The calculations result in a lower probability of a large fire, enabling QRA-tunnels to be adapted. Subject Fluid & Solid MechanicsSR - Structural ReliabilityTS - Technical SciencesBuildings and InfrastructuresSafetyUrbanisationQuantitative risk analysisQRAQRA-tunnelsRoad tunnelFireProbabilityBayesStatisticsTunnel safety To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:49c6529d-7980-4e3a-9ffd-1cd2fa7fab69 TNO identifier 533810 Source Symposium ISTSS 2016. The 7th International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security, Montreal, Canada, 16 - 18th March, 2016, 1-12 Document type conference paper Files To receive the publication files, please send an e-mail request to TNO Library.