Title
Probability of large fire in a road tunnel; A Bayesian approach
Author
Nelisse, R.M.L.
Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.
Publication year
2016
Abstract
Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a “risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out” [1]. In the Netherlands, the risk of death for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitative risk analysis, which is called “QRA-tunnels”. The probability of fire that has been used in the model was expected to be too high compared to the probability of fire based on statistics [2]. In this paper a Bayesian approach is presented based on a research study enabling the calculation of the probability of a large fire in a road tunnel [3]. The calculations result in a lower probability of a large fire, enabling QRA-tunnels to be adapted.
Subject
Fluid & Solid Mechanics
SR - Structural Reliability
TS - Technical Sciences
Buildings and Infrastructures
Safety
Urbanisation
Quantitative risk analysis
QRA
QRA-tunnels
Road tunnel
Fire
Probability
Bayes
Statistics
Tunnel safety
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:49c6529d-7980-4e3a-9ffd-1cd2fa7fab69
TNO identifier
533810
Source
Symposium ISTSS 2016. The 7th International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security, Montreal, Canada, 16 - 18th March, 2016, 1-12
Document type
conference paper