Offshore wind business feasbilility in a flexible and electrified Dutch energy market by 2030
Offshore wind is the primary supplier of CO2-free electricity moving towards decarbonising the Dutch power system. The installed capacity aims to increase sevenfold to 21.5 GW by 2030. However, the current market trends of increasing renewable capacity, industrial electrification, gas and CO2 prices, the expansion of interconnection, and the need for grid reinforcements are making the power market more volatile. These trends, together with the phasing out of subsidies, result in increasing the risks for offshore wind business. With this paper, TNO provides insights and recommendations to achieve a profitable offshore wind business under two scenarios by 2030, using TNO’s state-of-the-art European power market and dispatching business models. The two scenarios represent the Dutch power system under a low- and highelectrification growth scenario respectively, following current national and European policies for supply and demand. The economic risks for the offshore wind business are investigated.
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