The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles ﬂeet for cars in the EU by 2050: Pathways and impacts: An evaluation of forecasts and backcasting the COP21 commitments : A policy support study carried out as part of the EAFO project for the European Commission Directorate General Mobility & Transport
van Gijlswijk, R.N.
Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. The transport sector is expected to deliver a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car ﬂeet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C will demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050. This report is designed to help policymakers understand the impacts of a rapid transition to a zero emission car (ZEV) ﬂeet. It considers the impacts of this transition on imported fossil fuels, GHG emissions, air quality and the overall competitiveness of EU industry. An extensive literature review failed to identify any scenarios or forecasts that provide novel insights on the impacts of a complete transition to a ZEV ﬂeet in the EU. To address this need, a range of scenarios were modelled to determine the ﬁnancial, energy and CO2 emission impacts of a transition to a ZEV passenger car ﬂeet by 2050. Three forecast scenarios draw on an analysis of existing literature for ZEV sales to outline low, medium and high uptakes of ZEVs. Three backcast scenarios are also presented to chart pathways to the target of 100% ZEV passenger car ﬂeet by 2050. These backcasts consider different levels of uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEVs).
To reference this document use:
Mobility & Logistics
2015 Urban Mobility & Environment
STL - Sustainable Transport & Logistics
ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences
EAFO ; European Commission, Brussel