Title
Uncertainty propagation of arbitrary probability density functions applied to upscaling of transmissivities
Author
Lourens, A.
van Geer, F.C.
Publication year
2016
Abstract
In many fields of study, and certainly in hydrogeology, uncertainty propagation is a recurring subject. Usually, parametrized probability density functions (PDFs) are used to represent data uncertainty, which limits their use to particular distributions. Often, this problem is solved by Monte Carlo simulation, with the disadvantage that one needs a large number of calculations to achieve reliable results. In this paper, a method is proposed based on a piecewise linear approximation of PDFs. The uncertainty propagation with these discretized PDFs is distribution independent. The method is applied to the upscaling of transmissivity data, and carried out in two steps: the vertical upscaling of conductivity values from borehole data to aquifer scale, and the spatial interpolation of the transmissivities. The results of this first step are complete PDFs of the transmissivities at borehole locations reflecting the uncertainties of the conductivities and the layer thicknesses. The second step results in a spatially distributed transmissivity field with a complete PDF at every grid cell. We argue that the proposed method is applicable to a wide range of uncertainty propagation problems. © 2015, The Author(s).
Subject
Geo
GM - Geomodelling
ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences
Geological Survey Netherlands
Geosciences
2015 Energy
Error propagation
Probability density function
Piecewise linear
Kriging
Upscaling transmissivity
Monte Carlo simulation
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:29e68d33-d240-483b-97ac-ad22d6fac199
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1075-8
TNO identifier
533281
Publisher
Springer New York LLC
ISSN
1436-3240
Source
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30 (1), 237-249
Document type
article