Title
A microsimulation model for the development and progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Author
Tan, E.
Boessen, R.
Fishwick, D.
Klein Entink, R.
Meijster, T.
Pronk, A.
van Duuren-Stuurman, B.
Warren, N.
Publication year
2015
Abstract
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic lung disease that is thought to affect over one million people in Great Britain. The main factor contributing to the development of COPD is tobacco smoke. This paper presents a microsimulation model for the development of COPD, incorporating population dynamics and trends in smoking. The model simulates a population longitudinally throughout their lifetimes, providing projections of future COPD prevalence and evaluation of the effects of changes in risk factor prevalence such as smoking. Sensitivity analysis provides information on the most influential model parameters. The model-predicted prevalence of COPD in 2040 was 17% in males over the age of 35 years (13% amongst non-smokers and 22% amongst smokers), and a modest decline over the next 25 years due to recent trends in smoking rates. The simulation model provides us with valuable information on current and future trends in COPD in Great Britain. It was developed primarily to enable easy extension to evaluate the effects of occupational and environmental exposures on lung function and the prevalence of COPD and to allow evaluation of interventions, such as introducing health surveillance or policy changes. As longitudinal studies for investigating COPD are difficult due to the lengthy follow-up time required and the potentially large number of drop-outs, we anticipate that the model will provide a valuable tool for health impact assessment. An extended model for occupational exposures is under development and will be presented in a subsequent paper. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Subject
Life
RAPID - Risk Analysis for Products in Development
ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences
Healthy for Life
Health
Healthy Living
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Disease model
Microsimulation
Smoking
Adult
Chronic obstructive lung disease
Disease course
Disease simulation
Environmental exposure
Female
Follow up
Forced expiratory volume
Forced vital capacity
Health impact assessment
Health survey
Human
Longitudinal study
Lung function
Major clinical study
Male
Microsimulation model
Occupational exposure
Population dynamics
Prevalence
Risk factor
Smoking cessation
United Kingdom
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f58bc028-7684-4d2c-9785-838e3643e86a
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2015.09.011
TNO identifier
530903
ISSN
0954-6111
Source
Respiratory Medicine, 109 (12), 1521-1531
Document type
article